Trends in the prevalence of multiple chronic conditions among US adults with hypertension from 1999-2000 through 2017-2020.

BACKGROUND: The prevalence of many chronic conditions has increased over the past several decades among US adults. Many adults with hypertension have other chronic conditions. METHODS: We estimated changes in the age-adjusted prevalence of multiple (≥3) chronic conditions, not including hypertension, using data from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey, from 1999-2000 to 2017-2020, among US adults with and without hypertension (24,851 and 24,337 participants, respectively). Hypertension was defined as systolic blood pressure (BP) ≥130 mmHg, diastolic BP ≥80 mmHg, or self-reported antihypertensive medication use. We studied 14 chronic conditions: arthritis, asthma, cancer, coronary heart disease, chronic kidney disease, depression, diabetes, dyslipidemia, hepatitis-B, hepatitis-C, heart failure, lung disease, obesity, and stroke. RESULTS: From 1999-2000 to 2017-2020, the age-adjusted mean number of chronic conditions increased more among US adults with versus without hypertension (2.2 to 2.8 versus 1.7 to 2.0; p-interaction<0.001). Also, the age-adjusted prevalence of multiple chronic conditions increased from 39.0% to 52.0% among US adults with hypertension and from 26.0% to 30.0% among US adults without hypertension (p-interaction=0.022). In 2017-2020, after age, gender, and race/ethnicity adjustment, US adults with hypertension were 1.94 (95% CI: 1.72-2.18) times as likely to have multiple chronic conditions compared to those without hypertension. In 2017-2020, dyslipidemia, obesity, and arthritis were the most common 3 co-occurring chronic conditions among US adults with and without hypertension (age-adjusted prevalence 16.5% and 3.1%, respectively). CONCLUSION: In 2017-2020, more than half of US adults with hypertension had ≥3 additional chronic conditions, a substantial increase from 20 years ago.

Association Between Young Adult Characteristics and Blood Pressure Trajectories.

BACKGROUND: Blood pressure (BP) trajectories from young adulthood through middle age are associated with cardiovascular risk. We examined the associations of hypertension risk factors with BP trajectories among a large diverse sample. METHODS AND RESULTS: We analyzed data from young adults, aged 18 to 39 years, with untreated BP <140/90 mm Hg at baseline from Kaiser Permanente Southern California (N=355 324). We used latent growth curve models to identify 10-year BP trajectories and to assess the associations between characteristics in young adulthood and BP trajectories. We identified the following 5 distinct systolic BP trajectories, which appeared to be determined mainly by the baseline BP with progressively higher BP at each year: group 1 (lowest BP trajectory, 7.9%), group 2 (26.5%), group 3 (33.0%), group 4 (25.4%), and group 5 (highest BP trajectory, 7.3%). Older age (adjusted odds ratio for 30-39 versus 18-29 years, 1.23 [95% CI, 1.18-1.28]), male sex (13.38 [95% CI, 12.80-13.99]), obesity (body mass index ≥30 versus 18.5-24.9 kg/m2, 14.81 [95% CI, 14.03-15.64]), overweight (body mass index 25-29.9 versus 18.5-24.9 kg/m2, 3.16 [95% CI, 3.00-3.33]), current smoking (1.58 [95% CI, 1.48-1.67]), prediabetes (1.21 [95% CI, 1.13-1.29]), diabetes (1.60 [95% CI, 1.41-1.81]) and high low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (≥160 versus <100 mg/dL, 1.52 [95% CI, 1.37-1.68]) were associated with the highest BP trajectory (group 5) compared with the reference group (group 2). CONCLUSIONS: Traditional hypertension risk factors including smoking, diabetes, and elevated lipids were associated with BP trajectories in young adults, with obesity having the strongest association with the highest BP trajectory group.

Comparing PCSK9 Monoclonal Antibody Treatment Strategies Following Myocardial Infarction Using Negative Control Outcomes: A Target Trial Emulation Study.

BACKGROUND: Initiation of proprotein convertase subtilisin/kexin type 9 monoclonal antibody (PCSK9 mAb) for lipid-lowering following myocardial infarction (MI) is likely affected by patients' prognostic factors, potentially leading to bias when comparing real-world treatment effects. METHODS: Using target-trial emulation, we assessed potential confounding when comparing two treatment strategies post-MI: initiation of PCSK9 mAb within 1 year and no initiation of PCSK9 mAb. We identified MI hospitalizations during July 2015-June 2020 for patients aged ≥18 years in Optum's de-identified Clinformatics® Data Mart (CDM) and MarketScan, and aged ≥66 in US Medicare claims database. We estimated 3-year counterfactual cumulative risk and risk difference (RD) for 10 negative control outcomes using the clone-censor-weight approach to address time-varying confounding and immortal person-time. RESULTS: PCSK9 mAb initiation within 1-year post-MI was low (0.7% in MarketScan and 0.4% in both CDM and Medicare databases). In CDM, there was a lower risk for cancer (RD = -3.6% [95% CI: -4.3%, -2.9%]), decubitus ulcer (RD = -7.7% [95% CI: -11.8%, -3.7%]), fracture (RD = -8.1% [95% CI: -9.6%, -6.6%]), influenza vaccine (RD = -9.3% [95% CI: -17.5%, -1.1%]), and visual test (RD = -0.6% [95% CI: -0.7%, -0.6%]) under the PCSK9 mAb initiation vs. no initiation strategy. Similar differences persisted in the MarketScan and Medicare databases. In each database, ezetimibe and low-density lipoprotein testing were unbalanced between treatment strategies. CONCLUSION: A comparative effectiveness study of these treatments using the current approach would likely bias results due to the low number of PCSK9 mAb initiators.

Ambulatory Care Fragmentation and Total Health Care Costs.

BACKGROUND: The magnitude of the relationship between ambulatory care fragmentation and subsequent total health care costs is unclear. OBJECTIVE: To determine the association between ambulatory care fragmentation and total health care costs. RESEARCH DESIGN: Longitudinal analysis of 15 years of data (2004-2018) from the national Reasons for Geographic and Racial Differences in Stroke (REGARDS) study, linked to Medicare fee-for-service claims. SUBJECTS: A total of 13,680 Medicare beneficiaries who are 65 years and older. MEASURES: We measured ambulatory care fragmentation in each calendar year, defining high fragmentation as a reversed Bice-Boxerman Index ≥0.85 and low as <0.85. We used generalized linear models to determine the association between ambulatory care fragmentation in 1 year and total Medicare expenditures (costs) in the following year, adjusting for baseline demographic and clinical characteristics, a time-varying comorbidity index, and accounting for geographic variation in reimbursement and inflation. RESULTS: The average participant was 70.9 years old; approximately half (53%) were women. One-fourth (26%) of participants had high fragmentation in the first year of observation. Those participants had a median of 9 visits to 6 providers, with the most frequently seen provider accounting for 29% of visits. By contrast, participants with low fragmentation had a median of 8 visits to 3 providers, with the most frequently seen provider accounting for 50% of visits. High fragmentation was associated with $1085 more in total adjusted costs per person per year (95% CI $713 to $1457) than low fragmentation. CONCLUSIONS: Highly fragmented ambulatory care in 1 year is independently associated with higher total costs the following year.

Risk Prediction for Atherosclerotic Cardiovascular Disease With and Without Race Stratification.

Importance: Use of race-specific risk prediction in clinical medicine is being questioned. Yet, the most commonly used prediction tool for atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD)-pooled cohort risk equations (PCEs)-uses race stratification. Objective: To quantify the incremental value of race-specific PCEs and determine whether adding social determinants of health (SDOH) instead of race improves model performance. Design, Setting, and Participants: Included in this analysis were participants from the biracial Reasons for Geographic and Racial Differences in Stroke (REGARDS) prospective cohort study. Participants were aged 45 to 79 years, without ASCVD, and with low-density lipoprotein cholesterol level of 70 to 189 mg/dL or non-high-density lipoprotein cholesterol level of 100 to 219 mg/dL at baseline during the period of 2003 to 2007. Participants were followed up to 10 years for incident ASCVD, including myocardial infarction, coronary heart disease death, and fatal and nonfatal stroke. Study data were analyzed from July 2022 to February 2023. Main outcome/measures: Discrimination (C statistic, Net Reclassification Index [NRI]), and calibration (plots, Nam D'Agostino test statistic comparing observed to predicted events) were assessed for the original PCE, then for a set of best-fit, race-stratified equations including the same variables as in the PCE (model C), best-fit equations without race stratification (model D), and best-fit equations without race stratification but including SDOH as covariates (model E). Results: This study included 11 638 participants (mean [SD] age, 61.8 [8.3] years; 6764 female [58.1%]) from the REGARDS cohort. Across all strata (Black female, Black male, White female, and White male participants), C statistics did not change substantively compared with model C (Black female, 0.71; 95% CI, 0.68-0.75; Black male, 0.68; 95% CI, 0.64-0.73; White female, 0.77; 95% CI, 0.74-0.81; White male, 0.68; 95% CI, 0.64-0.71), in model D (Black female, 0.71; 95% CI, 0.67-0.75; Black male, 0.68; 95% CI, 0.63-0.72; White female, 0.76; 95% CI, 0.73-0.80; White male, 0.68; 95% CI, 0.65-0.71), or in model E (Black female, 0.72; 95% CI, 0.68-0.76; Black male, 0.68; 95% CI, 0.64-0.72; White female, 0.77; 95% CI, 0.74-0.80; White male, 0.68; 95% CI, 0.65-0.71). Comparing model D with E using the NRI showed a net percentage decline in the correct assignment to higher risk for male but not female individuals. The Nam D'Agostino test was not significant for all race-sex strata in each model series, indicating good calibration in all groups. Conclusions: Results of this cohort study suggest that PCE performed well overall but had poorer performance in both BM and WM participants compared with female participants regardless of race in the REGARDS cohort. Removal of race or the addition of SDOH did not improve model performance in any subgroup.

Atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease events among adults with high predicted risk without established risk factors.

Objective: Age is the strongest contributor to 10-year predicted atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) risk. Some older adults have a predicted ASCVD risk ≥7.5 %, without established risk factors. We sought to compare ASCVD incidence among adults with predicted ASCVD risk ≥7.5 %, with and without established ASCVD risk factors, to adults with predicted risk <7.5 %. Methods: We analyzed data from REasons for Geographic and Racial Differences in Stroke study participants, 45-79 years old, without ASCVD or diabetes, not taking statins and with low-density lipoprotein cholesterol 70-189 mg/dL. Participants were categorized into 3 groups based on their 10-year predicted ASCVD risk and presence of established risk factors: <7.5 %, ≥7.5 % with established risk factors and ≥7.5 % without established risk factors. Established risk factors included smoking, systolic blood pressure ≥130 mmHg or antihypertensive medication use, total cholesterol ≥200 mg/dL, or high-density lipoprotein cholesterol <50 mg/dL for women (<40 mg/dL for men). Participants were followed for ASCVD events. Results: Among 11,115 participants, 911 incident ASCVD events occurred over a median of 11.1 years. ASCVD incidence rates were 3.6, 12.8, and 9.8 per 1,000 person-years for participants with predicted risk <7.5 %, predicted risk ≥7.5 % with established risk factors and predicted risk ≥7.5 % without established risk factors, respectively. Compared to adults with predicted risk <7.5 %, hazard ratios for incident ASCVD in participants with risk ≥7.5 % with and without established risk factors were 3.58 (95 %CI 3.03 - 4.21) and 2.72 (95 %CI 1.91-3.88), respectively. Conclusions: Adults with a 10-year predicted ASCVD risk ≥7.5 % but without established risk factors had a high ASCVD incidence.

Lipoprotein(a) and the Risk for Recurrent Atherosclerotic Cardiovascular Events Among Adults With CKD: The Chronic Renal Insufficiency Cohort (CRIC) Study.

Rationale & Objective: Many adults with chronic kidney disease (CKD) and atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) have high lipoprotein(a) levels. It is unclear whether high lipoprotein(a) levels confer an increased risk for recurrent ASCVD events in this population. We estimated the risk for recurrent ASCVD events associated with lipoprotein(a) in adults with CKD and prevalent ASCVD. Study Design: Observational cohort study. Setting & Participants: We included 1,439 adults with CKD and prevalent ASCVD not on dialysis enrolled in the Chronic Renal Insufficiency Cohort study between 2003 and 2008. Exposure: Baseline lipoprotein(a) mass concentration, measured using a latex-enhanced immunoturbidimetric assay. Outcomes: Recurrent ASCVD events (primary outcome), kidney failure, and death (exploratory outcomes) through 2019. Analytical Approach: We used Cox proportional-hazards regression models to estimate adjusted HR (aHRs) and 95% CIs. Results: Among participants included in the current analysis (mean age 61.6 years, median lipoprotein(a) 29.4 mg/dL [25th-75th percentiles 9.9-70.9 mg/dL]), 641 had a recurrent ASCVD event, 510 developed kidney failure, and 845 died over a median follow-up of 6.6 years. The aHR for ASCVD events associated with 1 standard deviation (SD) higher log-transformed lipoprotein(a) was 1.04 (95% CI, 0.95-1.15). In subgroup analyses, 1 SD higher log-lipoprotein(a) was associated with an increased risk for ASCVD events in participants without diabetes (aHR, 1.23; 95% CI, 1.02-1.48), but there was no evidence of an association among those with diabetes (aHR, 0.99; 95% CI, 0.88-1.10, P comparing aHRs = 0.031). The aHR associated with 1 SD higher log-lipoprotein(a) in the overall study population was 1.16 (95% CI, 1.04-1.28) for kidney failure and 1.02 (95% CI, 0.94-1.11) for death. Limitations: Lipoprotein(a) was not available in molar concentration. Conclusions: Lipoprotein(a) was not associated with the risk for recurrent ASCVD events in adults with CKD, although it was associated with a risk for kidney failure.

Incident CHD and ischemic stroke associated with lipoprotein(a) by levels of Factor VIII and inflammation.

BACKGROUND: Inflammation and coagulation may contribute to the increased risk for atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) associated with high lipoprotein(a). The association of lipoprotein(a) with ASCVD is stronger in individuals with high versus low high-sensitivity C-reactive protein (hs-CRP), a marker of inflammation. OBJECTIVES: Determine the association of lipoprotein(a) with incident ASCVD by levels of coagulation Factor VIII controlling for hs-CRP. METHODS: We analyzed data from 6,495 men and women 45 to 84 years of age in the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis (MESA) without prevalent ASCVD at baseline (2000-2002). Lipoprotein(a) mass concentration, Factor VIII coagulant activity, and hs-CRP were measured at baseline and categorized as high or low (≥75th or <75th percentile of the distribution). Participants were followed for incident coronary heart disease (CHD) and ischemic stroke through 2015. RESULTS: Over a median follow-up of 13.9 years, there were 390 CHD and 247 ischemic stroke events. The hazard ratio (95%CI) for CHD associated with high lipoprotein(a) (≥40.1 versus <40.1 mg/dL) including adjustment for hs-CRP among participants with low and high Factor VIII was 1.07 (0.80-1.44) and 2.00 (1.33-3.01), respectively (p-value for interaction 0.016). The hazard ratio (95%CI) for CHD associated with high lipoprotein(a) including adjustment for Factor VIII was 1.16 (0.87-1.54) and 2.00 (1.29-3.09) among participants with low and high hs-CRP, respectively (p-value for interaction 0.042). Lp(a) was not associated with ischemic stroke regardless of Factor VIII or hs-CRP levels. CONCLUSION: High lipoprotein(a) is a risk factor for CHD in adults with high levels of hemostatic or inflammatory markers.

Diabetes, gaps in care coordination, and preventable adverse events.

OBJECTIVES: To compare the frequency of self-reported gaps in care coordination and self-reported preventable adverse events among adults with vs without diabetes. STUDY DESIGN: Cross-sectional analysis of REasons for Geographic And Racial Differences in Stroke (REGARDS) study participants 65 years and older who completed a survey on health care experiences in 2017-2018 (N = 5634). METHODS: We analyzed the association of diabetes with self-reported gaps in care coordination and with preventable adverse events. Gaps in care coordination were assessed using 8 validated questions. Four self-reported adverse events were studied (drug-drug interactions, repeat medical tests, emergency department visits, and hospitalizations). Respondents were asked if they thought these events could have been prevented with better communication among providers. RESULTS: Overall, 1724 (30.6%) participants had diabetes. Among participants with and without diabetes, 39.3% and 40.7%, respectively, reported any gap in care coordination. The adjusted prevalence ratio (aPR) for any gap in care coordination for participants with vs without diabetes was 0.97 (95% CI, 0.89-1.06). Any preventable adverse event was reported by 12.9% and 8.7% of participants with and without diabetes, respectively. The aPR for any preventable adverse event for participants with vs without diabetes was 1.22 (95% CI, 1.00-1.49). Among participants with and without diabetes, the aPRs for any preventable adverse event associated with any gap in care coordination were 1.53 (95% CI, 1.15-2.04) and 1.50 (95% CI, 1.21-1.88), respectively (P comparing aPRs = .922). CONCLUSIONS: Interventions to improve quality of care for patients with diabetes could incorporate patient-reported gaps in care coordination to aid in preventing adverse events.

Hypertension severity, apparent treatment resistant hypertension and hyperuricemia in the REasons for Geographic And Racial Differences in Stroke (REGARDS) study.

BACKGROUND: Prior studies have identified an association between hypertension and hyperuricemia; however, there has been limited research on the association between hypertension severity and hyperuricemia. METHOD: We studied 997 Black and white adults with serum urate data from the reasons for geographic and racial differences in stroke (REGARDS) study. Hypertension was defined as SBP ≥ 140 mmHg or DBP ≥ 90 mmHg or self-reported use of antihypertensive medication. Apparent treatment-resistant hypertension (aTRH) was defined as a SBP ≥ 140 mmHg or DBP ≥ 90 mmHg with concurrent use of three classes of antihypertensive medications, or taking four or more classes of antihypertensive medication regardless of BP level. Controlled BP was defined as SBP <140 mmHg and DBP <90 mmHg. RESULTS: Overall 5.9% of participants had aTRH and 36.6% had hyperuricemia, defined as serum urate >7.0 mg/dl for men and >6.0 mg/dl for women. After full multivariable adjustment, the odds ratio (OR) for hyperuricemia associated with hypertension was 1.60 [95% confidence interval (95% CI): 1.06-2.40]. Compared to participants not taking antihypertensive medication, the ORs for hyperuricemia for participants taking one, two and three classes of antihypertensive medication without aTRH were 1.98 (95% CI: 1.23-3.20), 2.08 (95% CI: 1.25-3.43), 4.31 (95% CI: 2.07-8.97), respectively, and 3.96 (95% CI: 1.75-8.96) for aTRH. Compared to participants without hypertension, the odds ratios for hyperuricemia were 1.67 (95% CI: 1.08-2.58) and 1.46 (95% CI: 0.88-2.44) among those with hypertension with and without controlled BP, respectively. Diuretic use was associated with a higher odds of hyperuricemia. CONCLUSION: This study suggests that individuals taking more classes of antihypertensive medication may benefit from monitoring for hyperuricemia.

Hypertension Statistics for US Adults: An Open-Source Web Application for Analysis and Visualization of National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey Data.

BACKGROUND: Data from the US National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey are freely available and can be analyzed to produce hypertension statistics for the noninstitutionalized US population. The analysis of these data requires statistical programming expertise and knowledge of National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey methodology. METHODS: We developed a web-based application that provides hypertension statistics for US adults using 10 cycles of National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey data, 1999 to 2000 through 2017 to 2020. We validated the application by reproducing results from prior publications. The application's interface allows users to estimate crude and age-adjusted means, quantiles, and proportions. Population counts can also be estimated. To demonstrate the application's capabilities, we estimated hypertension statistics for noninstitutionalized US adults. RESULTS: The estimated mean systolic blood pressure (BP) declined from 123 mm Hg in 1999 to 2000 to 120 mm Hg in 2009 to 2010 and increased to 123 mm Hg in 2017 to 2020. The age-adjusted prevalence of hypertension (ie, systolic BP≥130 mm Hg, diastolic BP≥80 mm Hg or self-reported antihypertensive medication use) was 47.9% in 1999 to 2000, 43.0% in 2009 to 2010, and 44.7% in 2017 to 2020. In 2017 to 2020, an estimated 115.3 million US adults had hypertension. The age-adjusted prevalence of controlled BP, defined by the 2017 American College of Cardiology/American Heart Association BP guideline, among nonpregnant US adults with hypertension was 9.7% in 1999 to 2000, 25.0% in 2013 to 2014, and 21.9% in 2017 to 2020. After age adjustment and among nonpregnant US adults who self-reported taking antihypertensive medication, 27.5%, 48.5%, and 43.0% had controlled BP in 1999 to 2000, 2013 to 2014, and 2017 to 2020, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: The application developed in the current study is publicly available at https://bcjaeger.shinyapps.io/nhanesShinyBP/ and produced valid, transparent and reproducible results.

Recurrent Atherosclerotic Cardiovascular Disease Events Potentially Prevented with Guideline-Recommended Cholesterol-Lowering Therapy following Myocardial Infarction.

PURPOSE: Many adults with atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) who are recommended to take a statin, ezetimibe and/or a proprotein convertase subtilisin/kexin type 9 inhibitor (PCSK9i) by the 2018 American Heart Association/American College of Cardiology cholesterol guideline do not receive these medications. We estimated the percentage of recurrent ASCVD events potentially prevented with guideline-recommended cholesterol-lowering therapy following a myocardial infarction (MI) hospitalization. METHODS: We conducted simulations using data from US adults with government health insurance through Medicare or commercial health insurance in the MarketScan database. We used data from patients with an MI hospitalization in 2018-2019 to estimate the percentage receiving guideline-recommended therapy. We used data from patients with an MI hospitalization in 2013-2016 to estimate the 3-year cumulative incidence of recurrent ASCVD events (i.e., MI, coronary revascularization or ischemic stroke). The low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C) reduction with guideline-recommended therapy was derived from trials of statins, ezetimibe and PCSK9i, and the associated ASCVD risk reduction was estimated from a meta-analysis by the Cholesterol-Lowering Treatment Trialists Collaboration. RESULTS: Among 279,395 patients with an MI hospitalization in 2018-2019 (mean age 75 years, mean LDL-C 92 mg/dL), 27.3% were receiving guideline-recommended cholesterol-lowering therapy. With current cholesterol-lowering therapy use, 25.3% (95%CI: 25.2%-25.4%) of patients had an ASCVD event over 3 years. If all patients were to receive guideline-recommended therapy, 19.8% (95%CI: 19.5%-19.9%) were estimated to have an ASCVD event over 3 years, representing a 21.6% (95%CI: 20.5%-23.6%) relative risk reduction. CONCLUSION: Implementation of guideline-recommended cholesterol-lowering therapy could prevent a substantial percentage of recurrent ASCVD events.

Association Between Triglycerides and Incident Cognitive Impairment in Black and White Adults in the Reasons for Geographic and Racial Differences in Stroke Study.

Background Elevated nonfasting triglycerides were associated with non-Alzheimer dementia in a recent study. However, this study neither evaluated the association of fasting triglycerides with incident cognitive impairment (ICI) nor adjusted for high-density lipoprotein cholesterol or hs-CRP (high-sensitivity C-reactive protein), known risk markers for ICI and dementia. Methods and Results We examined the association between fasting triglycerides and ICI among 16 170 participants in the REGARDS (Reasons for Geographic and Racial Differences in Stroke) study without cognitive impairment or a history of stroke at baseline in 2003 to 2007 and who had no stroke events during follow-up through September 2018. Overall, 1151 participants developed ICI during the median follow-up of 9.6 years. The relative risk for ICI associated with fasting triglycerides of ≥150 mg/dL versus <100 mg/dL including adjustment for age and geographic region of residence was 1.59 (95% CI, 1.20-2.11) among White women and 1.27 (95% CI, 1.00-1.62) among Black women. After multivariable adjustment, including adjustment for high-density lipoprotein cholesterol and hs-CRP, the relative risk for ICI associated with fasting triglycerides ≥150 mg/dL versus <100 mg/dL was 1.50 (95% CI, 1.09-2.06) among White women and 1.21 (95% CI, 0.93-1.57) among Black women. There was no evidence of an association between triglycerides and ICI among White or Black men. Conclusions Elevated fasting triglycerides were associated with ICI in White women after full adjustment including high-density lipoprotein cholesterol and hs-CRP. The current results suggest that the association between triglycerides and ICI is stronger in women than men.

The Projected Impact of Population-Wide Achievement of LDL Cholesterol <70 mg/dL on the Number of Recurrent Events Among US Adults with ASCVD.

PURPOSE: Adults with atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) are recommended high-intensity statins, with those at very high risk for recurrent events recommended adding ezetimibe and/or a proprotein convertase subtilisin/kexin type 9 inhibitor if their low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C) is ≥70 mg/dL. We estimated the number of recurrent ASCVD events potentially averted if all adults in the United States (US) ≥45 years of age with ASCVD achieved an LDL-C <70 mg/dL. METHODS: The number of US adults with ASCVD and LDL-C ≥70 mg/dL was estimated from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey 2009-2016 (n = 596). The 10-year cumulative incidence of recurrent ASCVD events was estimated from the REasons for Geographic And Racial Differences in Stroke study (n = 5390), weighted to the US population by age, race, and sex. The ASCVD risk reduction by achieving an LDL-C <70 mg/dL was estimated from meta-analyses of lipid-lowering treatment trials. RESULTS: Overall, 14.7 (95% CI, 13.7-15.8) million US adults had ASCVD, of whom 11.6 (95% CI, 10.6-12.5) million had LDL-C ≥70 mg/dL. The 10-year cumulative incidence of ASCVD events was 24.3% (95% CI, 23.2-25.6%). We projected that 2.823 (95% CI, 2.543-3.091) million ASCVD events would occur over 10 years among US adults with ASCVD and LDL-C ≥70 mg/dL. Overall, 0.634 (95% CI, 0.542-0.737) million ASCVD events could potentially be averted if all US adults with ASCVD achieved and maintained LDL-C <70 mg/dL. CONCLUSION: A substantial number of recurrent ASCVD events could be averted over 10 years if all US adults with ASCVD achieved, and maintained, an LDL-C <70 mg/dL.

Ambulatory Care Fragmentation, Emergency Department Visits, and Race: a Nationwide Cohort Study in the U.S.

BACKGROUND: It is unclear whether highly fragmented ambulatory care (i.e., care spread across multiple providers without a dominant provider) increases the risk of an emergency department (ED) visit. Whether any such association varies with race is unknown. OBJECTIVE: We sought to determine whether highly fragmented ambulatory care increases the risk of an ED visit, overall and by race. DESIGN AND PARTICIPANTS: We analyzed data for 14,361 participants ≥ 65 years old from the nationwide prospective REasons for Geographic and Racial Differences in Stroke (REGARDS) cohort study, linked to Medicare claims (2003-2016). MAIN MEASURES: We defined high fragmentation as a reversed Bice-Boxerman Index ≥ 0.85 (≥ 75th percentile). We used Poisson models to determine the association between fragmentation (as a time-varying exposure) and ED visits, overall and stratified by race, adjusting for demographics, medical conditions, medications, health behaviors, psychosocial variables, and physiologic variables. KEY RESULTS: The average participant was 70.5 years old; 53% were female, and 33% were Black individuals. Participants with high fragmentation had a median of 9 visits to 6 providers, with 29% of visits by the most frequently seen provider; participants with low fragmentation had a median of 7 visits to 3 providers, with 50% of visits by the most frequently seen provider. Overall, high fragmentation was associated with more ED visits than low fragmentation (adjusted risk ratio [aRR] 1.31, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.29, 1.34). The magnitude of this association was larger among Black (aRR 1.48, 95% CI 1.44, 1.53) than White participants (aRR 1.23, 95% CI 1.20, 1.25). CONCLUSIONS: Highly fragmented ambulatory care was an independent predictor of ED visits, especially among Black individuals.

Inflammation biomarkers and incident coronary heart disease: the Reasons for Geographic And Racial Differences in Stroke Study.

BACKGROUND: Individual inflammation biomarkers are associated with incident coronary heart disease (CHD) events. However, there is limited research on whether the risk for incident CHD is progressively higher with a higher number of inflammation biomarkers in abnormal levels. METHODS: We used data from 15,758 Reasons for Geographic and Racial Differences in Stroke (REGARDS) study participants aged ≥45 years without a history of CHD at baseline in 2003-2007. Abnormal levels of baseline high-sensitivity C-reactive protein, leukocyte count and serum albumin were defined as ≥3.8 mg/L (3rd tertile), ≥6.3 x 109 cells/L (3rd tertile), and <4.0 g/dL (1st tertile), respectively. The outcome was a composite of incident myocardial infarction or CHD death. RESULTS: Overall, 38.9% (n = 6,123) had 0, 36.6% (n = 5,774) had 1, 19.8% (n = 3,113) had 2 and 4.7% (n = 748) had 3 biomarkers of inflammation in abnormal levels. Over a median follow-up of 11.4 years, 954 (6.1%) participants had incident CHD. The rate of incident CHD per 1000 person-years for individuals with 0, 1, 2, and 3 biomarkers of inflammation in abnormal levels was 4.4 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 3.9-5.0), 6.3 (95% CI: 5.6-6.9), 8.8 (95% CI: 7.8-9.9), and 10.6 (95% CI: 8.1-13.1), respectively. Multi-variable adjusted hazard ratios for incident CHD associated with 1, 2 and 3 versus no inflammation biomarker in abnormal levels were 1.26 (95% CI: 1.07-1.49), 1.72 (95% CI: 1.43-2.07), and 1.84 (95% CI: 1.37-2.47), respectively (P-trend < .001). CONCLUSIONS: The number of inflammation markers in abnormal levels was associated with increased risk of incident CHD after multi-variable adjustment.

Frailty, gaps in care coordination, and preventable adverse events.

BACKGROUND: Older US adults often receive care from multiple ambulatory providers. Seeing multiple providers may be clinically appropriate but creates challenges for communication. Whether frailty is a risk factor for gaps in communication among older adults and subsequent preventable adverse events is unknown. METHODS: We conducted a cross-sectional analysis of community-dwelling US adults ≥ 65 years of age in the REasons for Geographic And Racial Differences in Stroke (REGARDS) study who attended an in-home study examination in 2013-2016 and completed a survey on experiences with healthcare in 2017-2018 (n = 5,024). Using 5 frailty indicators (low body mass index, exhaustion, slow walk, weakness, and history of falls), we characterized participants into 3 mutually exclusive groups: not frail (0 indicators), intermediate-frail (1-2 indicators), and frail (3-5 indicators). We used survey data on self-reported gaps in care coordination and self-reported adverse events that participants attributed to poor communication among providers (a drug-drug interaction, repeat testing, an emergency department visit, or a hospital admission). RESULTS: Overall, 2,398 (47.7%) participants were not frail, 2,436 (48.5%) were intermediate-frail, and 190 (3.8%) were frail. The prevalence of any gap in care coordination was 37.0%, 40.8%, and 51.1% among participants who were not frail, intermediate-frail and frail, respectively. The adjusted prevalence ratio (PR) for any gap in care coordination among intermediate-frail and frail versus not frail participants was 1.09 (95% confidence interval [95%CI] 1.02-1.18) and 1.34 (95%CI 1.15-1.56), respectively. The prevalence of any preventable adverse event was 7.0%, 11.3% and 20.0% among participants who were not frail, intermediate-frail and frail, respectively. The adjusted PR for any preventable adverse event among those who were intermediate-frail and frail versus not frail was 1.47 (95%CI 1.22-1.77) and 2.24 (95%CI 1.60-3.14), respectively. CONCLUSION: Among older adults, frailty is associated with an increased prevalence for self-reported gaps in care coordination and preventable adverse events. Targeted interventions to address patient-reported concerns regarding care coordination among intermediate-frail and frail older adults may be warranted.

Insomnia Diagnosis, Prescribed Hypnotic Medication Use, and Risk for Serious Fall Injuries in the Reasons for Geographic and Racial Differences in Stroke (REGARDS) Study.

STUDY OBJECTIVES: Insomnia is common among older adults and associated with an increased risk for falls. Determining if falls are more strongly associated with insomnia or prescribed hypnotic medications could be used to guide interventions to reduce falls risk. METHODS: We examined the prospective association of a diagnosis of insomnia and/or prescribed hypnotic medication use with the risk for serious fall injuries among 9087 Reasons for Geographic and Racial Differences in Stroke (REGARDS) study participants aged 65 years or older with Medicare fee-for-service health insurance at baseline (2003-2007). A diagnosis of insomnia was based on ICD-9 codes in Medicare claims and prescribed hypnotic medication use was determined through a pill bottle review. Serious fall injuries were identified by Medicare claims between baseline and December 31, 2018. RESULTS: Over a median of 6.8 years, 1660 (18.3%) participants had a serious fall injury. The incidence rates for a serious fall injury per 1000 person-years were 24.8 (95%CI: 23.5, 26.1), 28.8 (95%CI: 18.6, 38.9), 32.6 (95%CI: 28.2, 37.0), and 46.6 (95%CI: 26.7, 66.5) for participants without insomnia or taking prescribed hypnotic medication (-insomnia/-hypnotics), with insomnia only (+insomnia/-hypnotics), taking prescribed hypnotic medication only (-insomnia/+hypnotics), and with insomnia and taking prescribed hypnotic medication (+insomnia/+hypnotics), respectively. Compared with the -insomnia/-hypnotic group, the multivariable-adjusted hazard ratios for a serious fall injury were 1.13 (95%CI: 0.79, 1.61), 1.29 (95%CI: 1.11, 1.50), and 1.60 (95%CI: 1.01, 2.56) for +insomnia/-hypnotics, -insomnia/+hypnotics, and +insomnia/+hypnotics, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: The risk for serious fall injuries was higher for those taking prescribed hypnotic medications but not with an insomnia diagnosis.